No stimulus bill until 2021?

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For weeks, we heard politicians discussing getting stimulus checks out to Americans before the elections coming up next week.

After many talks and negotiations did not progress, the conversation shifted to the possibility of just getting to an agreement before the election.

And now that it is abundantly clear that we will not see a stimulus agreement finalized before the election, the shift is now on whether or not we will see a stimulus bill before the next president is sworn into office.

(In case you were wondering, if President Trump wins he will be sworn into office once again.)

Recently, we heard from Nancy Pelosi who stated that she envisions a stimulus bill getting done before 2021.

Pelosi said she expected Congress “certainly will have something [done] at the start of the new presidency.”

But she did also state that she doesn’t want to wait that long because “people have needs.”

And now we just heard from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell whoo said he expects action on a relief plan in early 2021.

Mitch McConnell told radio host Hugh Hewitt that he expects to handle relief “right at the beginning of the year.”

He reiterated that he wanted legislation “targeted particularly at small businesses that are struggling and hospitals that are now dealing with a second wave of the coronavirus.”

This messaging from the Republican leader contradicts President Trump’s recent comment that “we will have a tremendous stimulus package immediately after the election.”

So we have complete mixed messages coming from the executive and legislative branches.

Given the whirlwind of events that have taken place over the last couple of months, and really since the beginning of the pandemic, it’s no surprise that they’re such mixed messaging happening.

It seems that everyone is on a different page and has been for quite some time.

If Democrats win the Senate, there is the distinct possibility that they would be open to passing smaller packages right after the election.

That’s because they will no longer have to leverage passing a comprehensive deal like they have to right now given that they don’t have control of the Senate.

But that also assumes that members of Congress could come together after a pretty bitter election and that is not a guarantee.

This is especially true considering that you already have the leader of the republican party expecting stimulus aid to be held off until next year.

Further complicating matters, coronavirus cases are soaring right now in the US and abroad.

The death rates are not nearly as bad as they were at the beginning of the pandemic though and testing is rapidly more available so the outlook of the virus is not so disastrous as it once was.

There also may be a vaccine right around the corner.

We also saw a nice third quarter rebound that showed a 33.1% annual GDP increase.

We are still below where we were at the end of 2019 before the virus came into the US but it does appear that we are seeing strong signs of economic recovery.

So I don’t think anybody can tell you for sure if we will see more stimulus relief before the end of the year.

For the time being we will probably just have to live with the mixed messages coming from just about everybody involved.

My advice would be to assume that no more aid will arrive until early 2021.

H/T

Related

Biden’s plan for stimulus relief

Encouraging news: Pelosi wants deal before inauguration day if Biden wins

Two key deadlines for stimulus package

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